The Fourth Oil Crusade
- Stated Press
- Apr 18
- 4 min read
Oil prices are skyrocketing as people scramble for the last drops of fuel. Trains, buses, cars, and taxis are grinding to a halt. Even the police will eventually run out of fuel. Planes sit still on tarmacs. Steel mills and factories go silent. Millions lose their jobs. Farmers fail, and millions begin to starve. Crime spirals as the state ceases to function. Drugs to fight diseases run out because manufacturing is impossible. The global economy collapses. Forests are stripped bare for firewood. People in the North flee to warmer climates. The internet fails; mass communication disintegrates. It is the end of civilisation as we know it—a return to the Middle Ages, but with nearly 10 billion people piled in high-rise buildings, any food that can be pulled into the city on wagons by, assumedly, ex-race horses, is eaten as it arrives and people are still hungry
This is the picture if oil ran out tomorrow. Though dramatic and will not happen, it serves to underscore oil’s significance. When Winston Churchill made the Royal Navy switch from coal to oil as their main fuel source in 1911 this moment symbolised the beginning of the central role that oil would play from then until now in affairs of the macro economic and by extension, everything.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, after the war launched by the US and Israel in February 2026, has lit the floodlights on our oil-dependent reality. People had predicted the closure and its effect on oil prices, but few considered the impact on fertilizer and food, and even fewer on micro-chip production. Helium is a key component for cooling during chip manufacturing, and is sourced from the now unreachable side of the Strait. Oil is not just a fuel; its byproducts and chemicals, plus the natural gas bottled up and now stuck in the Persian Gulf.
The US Department of Energy lists products deriving from oil and gas: adhesives, ammonia, antifreeze, aspirins, cell phones, clothes, computers, cortisone, fertilizers, food preservatives, heart valves, insecticides, iPads, laptops, lipstick, pharmaceuticals, plastics, refrigerants, solar panels, spacesuits, tires, toothbrushes, water pipes, wind turbine blades—basically everything needed for 21st-century life. Of course, humanity would survive without hula hoops, but the current DOE wishes to emphasise the importance of oil more than past administrations. Alternatives exist, but oil-based versions dominate due to cost. So how much oil do countries keep in reserve?
Humanity consumes about 100 million barrels daily. A strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is an emergency government stockpile. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), members hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency stocks, plus 600 million barrels of industry stocks under government mandate. That supplies humanity for about 18 days if all production stopped—but it won’t. The Hormuz crisis has affected 20% of global supply. Before the war, 20 million barrels passed through daily on 100–138 ships. Now, 5 or 6 ships pass. Sea transport, 70% of oil movement, is down 20% globally. Refineries in the Gulf have also stopped.
It makes more sense to look at days of supply per country.
Japan holds 254 days (146 government, 101 private). On March 16, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a unilateral release of 80 million barrels. China holds the world’s largest total reserve but consumes more; leaving it with about 120 days of supply. According to Vortexa, China’s onshore crude inventories reached a record 1.13 billion barrels by end of 2025. China bought 80% of Iranian oil in 2025 and has been one of the few nations to get a tanker through the Strait, along with India and South Africa.
The US holds 415 million barrels, covering about 200 days of net crude imports. The DOE confirmed it would release 172 million barrels over the course of 2026 as part of its contribution to the same release by others within the IEA mentioned above. Trump’s government announced that it had lent 45.2 million barrels of oil from the SPR to oil companies. The SPR currently is estimated to cover approximately 200 days of net crude imports, based on a calculation made by Reuters.
Turning to Europe, according to the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, the UK holds about 38 million barrels of crude oil and 30 million barrels of refined products, as strategic reserves. This is enough for around 90 days. Germany holds 110 million barrels of crude and 67 million of finished products. France had roughly 120 million barrels at the end of 2024.
Some nations keep no strategic reserve. Landlocked, smaller, poorer countries like Burundi rely on long-haul trucks. Major oil producers like Brazil, Russia, and Algeria see no need to stockpile what they can extract from their own soil.
No nation has more than nine months of stored oil reserve. In a doomsday scenario, most countries have less than a week before society breaks down. The US blockade on Cuba has already played out that apocalypse: hospital generators failing, babies in incubators dying, mass blackouts.
The Philippines has declared an energy emergency and begun rationing fuel. With the US lifting sanctions on Russian oil to relieve the market, long-term US strategic partnerships are unraveling. The blame for the war falls on the US and Israel, not Iran. The petrodollar might fall victim, as nations buy crude oil in whatever currency they wish, and the US loses a pillar upholding the dollar as the global reserve currency.
In this seemingly fictional scenario, Pete Hegseth has a crusader’s cross tattooed on his chest and makes multiple biblical and theological declarations regarding this war. Netanyahu’s government includes those seeking to rebuild a biblical ancient Judea, and the result of this religious war seeks to reshape the petrodollar and end oil dependency. It is not hard to see the similarities with the Fourth Crusade of 1204—which intended to retake Jerusalem but instead sacked Constantinople, and lead to the terminal decline of the Eastern Roman Empire.
Sources:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/southeast-asia-shuts-offices-limits-travel-as-oil-crisis-deepens#:~:text=Even%20oil%2Dproducing%20Indonesia%20relies,for%20an%20additional%2030%20days.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/24/australia-fuel-reserve-what-and-where-is-it#:~:text=The%20Morrison%20government%20bought%20the,according%20to%20his%20earlier%20calculation.
https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/6233/energy-and-resources/indonesia-targets-90-day-oil-reserve-to-bolster-energy-security-amid-global-volatility#:~:text=The%20Indonesian%20government%20has%20announced,buffer%20is%20currently%20being%20tested.
https://au-afrec.org/burundi#:~:text=Burundi%20has%20no%20indigenous%20sources,consumption%20and%20re%2Dforestation%20programs.
Comments