Taking all of Trump’s and the US’s myriad of other woes, legal, war, and other, to the side for now. We are in for quite the ride.
The storm clouds of this situation have been brewing and creeping over the horizon for 3 years. We all knew that eventually the butcher’s bill for the Jan 6th storming of Capitol Hill would come. And here it is. It is arguably one of the most volatile versions of how things could have played out. None from the Republican establishment has risen to replace Trump as the next nominee. Trump is still the dominant favourite for the Republican presidential nomination and no clear replacement for Biden has emerged either. If nothing changes in the next 10 months, we will see these 2 men go head-to-head, again, except this time Biden is 82, not what Democratic voters were expecting to stomach, and Trump will be campaigning from a court room or maybe a jail cell.
Is it possible to overstate the implications here? A former US president charged with trying to cling to power, trying to overturn the results of an American election, and fighting his case while also running for the same office again. Or if we take Trump’s view, a lawfully elected man fighting for his right to reclaim his democratic mandate and being ousted by a manipulative bureaucracy established by those who pull the real strings.
All the while, the world sits on the brink of a new global war, whether it be a cold one or a very hot nuclear one.
The trial of the age
The case is called “Trump Versus The United States of America”, could it sound more epic? And indeed it does feel like that to both sides.
For his supporters it feels that it is Trump standing up against the very real Washington establishment, the snobby elites, the deep state or the notorious swamp. For his combatants he is a lying rotten 1980’s dodgy businessman, the orange monster that threatened their beloved shining city on the hill.
It all proves that it just might be the case that the polarization of US society has not dulled at all and that the two camps remain irreconcilable. Coming back to the grander view of this, what is on trial is not just Trump what is on trial here is in fact the American political system itself. Is it too far to say that the most significant political and philosophical products of the Renaissance, the French Revolution, the American Revolution, and of Western liberalism and capitalism in general are being tested here?
Its the fact that the power and effect of money, media, celebrity, and modern information consumerism is crashing head on with one-man-one-vote, the separation of powers, the democratic process, and the decision-making process. Its Jerry Springer and Rupert Murdoch in a WWE death match with George Washington and Thomas Jefferson.
The possible outcomes So this will go to trial before the election and what will that look like? Taking January 6th as an example the potential of a violent outbreak is very real. Other outcomes might play out as follows: 1. Trump loses the court case is convicted and after a successful campaign as a convict, potentially from jail, wins the election and pardons himself.
2. Trump loses the court case is convicted and after an unsuccessful campaign as a convict, potentially from jail, loses the election and basically everything.
3. Trump wins the court case and goes on to win the election.
4. Tump wins the court case but loses the election.
How realistic is it?
To be clear nothing legally stops Trump for running for office, Eugene Debs already ran for president from his prison cell in the 1920s. So being convicted, in jail, or being a criminal doesn’t stop one from running for president in the U.S.
This trial, and the other trials which will also run next year, will no doubt play a huge role on his campaign. What will however worry Trump’s opponents is that Trump is a master of political spin. None of the controversies that emerged in his 2016 campaign – calling Mexicans drug dealers and rapists, the infamous “grab em by the pussy” recording and so on – made much of a dent among his supporters. Proving that Trump might well be able to spin the court case into his own super version of “The Apprentice” or perhaps we might as well call it “The President”.
Thinking back to court cases such as those of Oscar Pistorius and OJ Simpson, it’s clear that keeping the spotlight might prove an easy task for Trump as he eclipses anything else on popular media. Who wants to watch Biden cut a ribbon at a new gym, or make a stumbly speech to some potato farmers in Idaho when the intricacies of the court case are unfolding tantalizingly slow under the scrutinizing efforts of a lawyer that wants to grill Trump while black oil mixed with sweat oozes from Rudy Giuliani’s head.
As with all high profile court cases, this is without a doubt going to be one of America’s greatest reality tv shows. Though in this case it will also define the fate of the nation and perhaps the wider world.
Implications The prosecution has a particularly difficult task in its hands which overall might play right into Trump’s hands. Surely every accusation raised in the court room will stir up within Trump’s supporters the sense that the man they want to be the leader of their country is under attack. That he is a victim of another witch hunt. That once again, those controlling characters in the swamp are conspiring against him.
A prosecution that will only pursue the case on its merits while not considering the wider political implications and dynamics might indeed inadvertently give Trump the political advantage he desires. Leading them to losing the case by winning it, so to speak.
For Trump, a victory can be achieved by merely using the trial as a political football. He can choose to plead the fifth, together with other diversionary tactics, to drag out the parts that do give him the public advantage and then minimize the ones that don’t. Since winning the case in the court room seems like a highly unlikely prospect given the evidence and that his larger goal is to return to office anyway all signs point to him focusing on the political effects of the trial first rather than the actual legal arguments or implications. This will be a very tight rope to walk.
From Biden’s side the hope is that this court case along with the other trials will dissuade or disgust enough of the swing voters who are not die hard MAGA and want a stable pair of hands from an honest leader. Their hope is that the trial shows Trump to be a diabolical liar who tried to overturn the American political system.
The problem here though is that those voters need to be convinced to nearing the level of “ANYONE but Trump”. This is the bar that needs to be reached since the alternative is Biden. A president with an extraordinarily low approval rating and who has overseen record high inflation and who will be 86 if he finishes this hypothetical second term.
Overall, 2024 with this trial alone and not bearing in mind other world events, is going to be a pivotal year for the American political system and all of us.
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